I remembered hearing an old Singapore Chinese Taxi driver telling me that in the 1950s and 1960s when China first exploded its nuclear bomb, those seeing the snippets in the black and white cinema all stood up and clapped. Kinda impossible to imagine such a situation in modern Singapore. But such was the pride of the Chinese Singaporeans for their mother land (China).

For me, am I proud of China? Its massive growth and emerging global status? I didn’t really think of it. Firstly I think of China growth as a series of analysis, whether is it sustainable, ecologically friendly etc, not the fervent pride that I as a Chinese is suppose to feel. I mean I do feel happy and proud that a once powerful civilization who had been trodden by the British and Japanese Imperial powers have finally had its proper position in the league of nations. But I do feel similarly for India. To be frank I am more pro India than pro China. I guess it is due to the food. I never seem to be fed up of eating nasi briyani. Actually my favorite is Soup Kambing. But after that hawker who ply his trade outside Singapore’s Chinese Swimming Club was gone, I can’t find any good Soup Kambing. One of my childhood ambition was to go to India and order one of those gigantic metal soup containers and learn from the best Soup Kambing cook and be a hawker. Anyway back to the Rise of China. I am kind of worried of China’s increasing military powers. India is more non-aligned but it is difficult to predict China’s behavior once USA is no longer able to contain it. Given its mighty economy, gigantic population and production facilities, it has no equal in Asia with the exception of India. But India seems to be not too keen on being a hegemon.

China

Chinese influence is felt everywhere. Say in Australia, with the exception of fruits and indigenous products, I would say the rest are all Made in China. If you are a property owner you will probably like the Chinese, but if you are a native without a property in say Melbourne or Sydney, I guess you will be cursing and swearing. Try going to a house auction or sale, the property agent will tell you if you like it, immediately buy and pay deposit or it will be gone. There are dozens of Chinese coming with tons of cash buying up the farms and houses right on the spot with CASH! I know China is big but the number of EXTREMELY rich people is amazing and they really make their presence felt. The interest rates have risen yet the housing boom remains. You do see houses that used to be going for say $600k to $800k going above a million dollars, not too healthy a development.

The Indians on the other hand normally distinguished themselves as professionals for instance, doctors, engineers and so on. But sad to say that their cooking skills really aren’t up to par in Australia. Imagine spending a hundred Aussie on Nasi Briyani and hearing complaints that it is worse than a plate of S$4 Briyani in Singapore . I know it is true but my pocket hurts.

Anyway back to China, I cannot foresee the pace of growth continuing. It is a bit too fast for the Chinese economy. The property bubble in China is horrendous. We are looking at a third catastrophe. USA Sub Prime, the PIIGS and now the Chinese Property Bubble. The Chinese stimulus package fails to consider a major issue which is the transparency of its lending. Too much cash going direct into the property and equity markets rather than to stimulate the production. It is now getting harder to control. A Catch 22 situation exist for the Chinese economy. Curtail lending and you get a double dip. Continue lending and you get a massive inflation or whose stagflation especially when their major trading partners are struggling between a runaway inflation or a deep deflation.

I would go long on commodities, the gold in my eyes are rice and wheat rather than metallic. No matter what you still have to eat right? I hope I am wrong though.