Well I am spot on on Genting Singapore . I do not need any analysis to feel that it is over bought or whatever. More of six sense to me after having been in the stock market since Pan Electric Saga. I am trying to keep a bit of money everytime I win to pay for the bus for the Chengdu orphanage. Should be able to get it, hopefully soon.

Genting Singapore benefited from quite a few factors, brand recognition in Singapore and Malaysia, the tourist sector in Singapore, good perceptions of Singapore as a safe and crime free country which is important for VIP gamblers. I am still give it an Outperform anytime. But some tracking back is essential before the stock prices goes up again. Really not possible to be up and up and up forever.

Looking at Genting Singapore share prices, it has been quite spectacular. But I decided to sell off. Not really spectacular profits but better than nothing. The USA economy is really bad. Treasury yields is bad enough and the share prices is depressed enough. So bad that I think some of the funds may move back to the equity markets because of the low yields everywhere.

Rather than parking the money in the static Asian markets, it is more exciting to venture back into the Nasdaq and NYSE. I guess this is my main reason for selling. I really do not like the stability of the Singapore stock markets. It is solid profits but never really spectacular profits. Zero exposure to shares at present, just sold off everything and monitoring a few gems to see if they are worth the plunge or not.

Saw a good brother today, opening up my ward robe, going in and closing the door again. Kinda weird. Feel like chasing him/her out. But on second thoughts, hard to say that if the good brother was the original inhabitant, maybe he did lived here earlier than us? No reason to chase him out. Just open the door, nothing and proceed to sleep. Haven’t seen one for years though. Forgot to even ask for a 4D or Toto number. Wasted

Ghost

Till now I haven’t seen any that tried to harm anyone or what. Just a few playful ones playing on my computers. Maybe I am lucky hehe….

BTW just entered the market dumping all into Genting Singapore at $1.58-$1.60. Kinda of feel that it is a stock that can whack and go. Was at $1.66 yesterday but too low for me. If I enter the market I expect a much higher returns. But I guess I won’t be holding the stocks for long. Have seen 一见发财, so should be quite good on luck especially with regards to money!

Feeling very lethargic today, it is lucky that while most Autumn courses have started, the lessons proper has not begin, still have a day or two to rest. Back to GMT + 0100 hrs……

Till now, the USA Fed is still concentrating on a painless “cure” for its economy, thinking that it can spend its way out of troubles. This is more of trying to learn from the lessons of the Great Depression in that it was generally perceived that the credit crunch was the cause of the Great Depression. But the credit crunch was the result of the Great Depression and not the cause of the Great Depression.

Flooding the economy with trillions of dollars doesn’t help if the banks are risk adverse as what we are seeing. The banks have the money, but they aren’t lending out as in a usual economy. The “sudden” influx of bad news isn’t really sudden. It is just a matter of time when the stock markets are inline with the expectations of the economy. It is also a matter of time when the other major economies realize that they can no longer fuel the expansion of USA consumerism. The latest Fed response to the rapidly declining economy of USA is quite impotent. It is more symbolic rather than of any significant improvements to the economy. After trillions of dollars, pouring in billions of dollars will not make much of a difference.

We are hearing talks that another economic stimulus is needed. But that would mean a greater scale of the influx of liquidity into the markets. The end result will be a situation whereby a much more severe credit crunch is needed to curb the implosion of the USA economy. There is no such thing as a painless cure which the USA is still pursuing.

Is it too late to bite the bullet? If there is another “economic stimulus”, I guess by the time the Fed wants to get out of the mess, it will be impossible. A double dip is not impossible but is still a remote possibility. But we may be in for a long long time of stagflation which will not be much difference from a double dip. I personally prefer a double dip than prolonged agony. But the way it is heading, I guess a stock market crash will be a welcome news for the Fed to implement austerity measures rather than continue their expansionist monetary policies. All in all it has been a series of extreme value destruction and it will continue for the foreseeable future until a balance between production and consumption is achieved in the USA. Persuading the Chinese to start spending isn’t going to be helpful as it is not that the Chinese do not spend, it is because the Americans are consuming too much of their future money.

My friend was telling me of two places with good food, Blk 350 Ubi Ave 1, good chicken rice. I had to go four times before I found the block. Quite good chicken, well done, rice slightly bland but was more than made up by a fiery chilli sauce. The other one was a 24 hour Mee Pok in Joo Chiat, I combed the entire area, still can’t find a 24 hour Mee Pok stall in Joo Chiat in Singapore. Still feeling die die must find but sian, Joo Chiat is so small, I already went through it a few times . Autumn Semester starting soon. This time a tough schedule at Malmo and Lund. Hopefully can survive intact, but must fatten myself up before then.

I belong to the Austrian School of Economics which is quite unusual given that I am more used to hard sciences. In fact, try to model the economy after the theory of chaos and had believe that there can be some realistic modeling of economies. But there is still a lot of controversy over what is economics. I guess one school denies the theories of another and vehemently protecting their own.

I do not take it for granted that whatever is given to me is the truth because it comes from that school or oppose a theory because it is from another branch of economists. The essence of knowledge is in learning, you learn about other theories in order to counter check on your own. You learn from other theories so as to enrich your own.

Is there a correct or wrong answer for Economics? I would say no, it is evolving and we are learning as society progresses. Economics isn’t a static subject, it morphs with society and we need to be constantly updated and not clenched on any particular beliefs or thoughts but to keep upgrading our knowledge from each other.

Strange and sad to see that if you go to any forums on economics, there are bound to be those diehards who will oppose and condemn any and everyone that do not support their views. I am constantly reminding myself that my knowledge may be a fist full of sand in the beach. It is infinitesimally small and insignificant and that I should keep learning from the rest, anyone can teach you a lesson or two. Be it the man in the street or the professors of the universities, all are equal and you can learn something from them.

My portfolio is back to zero after a lot of fun with BP . Reason why it is back to zero and reason why I will continue my policy of not holding any equity is I have serious doubts on the USA recovery, have serious doubts over the optimists of the Eurozones and also have serious doubts over the sustainability of the Chinese economy. The Baltic Dry index has fallen quite substantially for me to start worry about what will happen for the next 6 months to a year. Not conducive for investments.

I am slowly increasing my day trading activity as my health improves, but the above policy applies with regards to holding of equity.

Just took a taxi in Ubi area, I was surprised when the taxi driver told me he remembered me. I was his first passenger quite a few months back. Took me quite sometime to recollect, he wasn’t really old but full of white hair, professional and fluent in English. I remembered our conversation, he lost his job and had no choice but to be a taxi driver. He had problems with my house which was in one of those many small lanes of Singapore but I told him just take the roads that he was familiar with.

Never expected to meet him and never expected him to remember me. He seemed to be doing ok and we started talking about his taxi driving business. He told me he had just had a horrible Caucasian passenger who was totally outrageous and high handed. But overall he is still doing ok, but seemed quite resigned to his fate. Not difficult to see that he was used to be a much higher social position than now. Taxi driving seemed to be the last choice for those who are down and out in luck. But luckily I won’t be one of them, thats definite, I still failed my basic theory driving test…..

I haven’t held a position in the stock market since the sub prime crisis unfolded. I had a nice conversation with a few faculty members from the Finance division. No one really can fathom what is going on. I liquidiate everything. There is another Prof who told me he is sitting on his portfolio “a while longer”. He knew the risks are there but believe that he could get out before the crash. I am afraid he missed it just by that teeny weeny bit. He should know it better being an expert in the modeling of the financial markets. We are looking at a random walk algorithm most of the time. The best financial analyst cannot beat the typical house wife in the predictions.

My hands really get itchy throughout the years but I disciplined myself as a day trader. I never hold any position longer than the trading day itself. I am also a risk taker. Looking at BP itself, I am extremely inclined to take on a position. Finally decided on a 3 to 4 months position taking between $27 -29. Sure there is a risk but I normally get into the markets when everyone is dying to get out, which is the case for BP a week ago. The unknown is frightening, that is what prompted the exodus. But it is also during such a time that it is worth a gamble. So when is it a time to sell? When the relief wells stopped the flow. That is the time when predictability returns to the market. Do I intend to hold the stock for long? No way, the Euro crisis is just starting, it will take another couple of years to stabilize. The situation in Euro is dire, just that it is more or less ellipsed by the situation in the Gulf of Mexico.

I would say that this is not for the faint hearted. The fluctuations of BP share prices will be huge. You may end up losing everything you invested if the naysayers are proven correct. However the upside is also substantial given that it is the bluest chip in UK. There are also a lot of political factors involved in this company, not just saying that it is a National symbol of Britan but it is a source of stable income for a lot of pension funds. Destroying BP is as good a slap at the general population of USA and UK. Reason why BP is the whipping boy is because politics dictate it. But one reason why I buy the stock is that politics will not let this company fail. Anyway it is the excitement that draws me back into the stock market. I won’t want a stock that behaves like a dead fish.

Looking back at the sabbatical, I often wonder that those who are supposedly the most well schooled and the experts in the financial fields are often the ones who do not walk the talk. They do not seem to be following the advice that they themselves dish out to their clients.

U3 Dip to 9.7% but we are seeing massive sellout. In such times of uncertainty, do not depend on U3, check U5 fluctuations. There is too many discouraged workers in and out of U5 to make U3 predictions totally off mark.

With such unemployment rates, how can Consumer Sentiment truly improves? With European Union now mulling a Fiscal Union in addition to a Monetary Union, the initial formation of the EU seemed more and more like that of a shotgun marriage. We aren’t out of the woods yet.

The recent suicide cases at Foxconn points to wider social issues that China is facing, rampant corruption, runaway inflation, ridiculous Gini Index, excessively overheated economy…….may all this be just my fragments of imagination…..

As at Jun 2010, my analysis of the data of Federal Bank of St Louis still points towards a deflationary economy rather than stagflation that may have been expected. The euphoria of the Wall Street for the previous months doesn’t really tally with my predictions. The bears are getting the upper hand now but it seems that equity is kinda weaned away from reality. A lot of economists are laughing at the roads to nowhere in Japan pointing to their lost decade due to deflation. But remember, Japan despite facing tremendous pressures made full use of the decade to change the structure of the Japanese economy to make equality a possibility. I do not see that in USA, where the rich are getting richer at the expense of the poor. Where too big to fail corporations hold their government at ransom.